All indicators pointing north; gold to shine bright this Akshaya Tritiya

By Manoj Kumar Jain

Gold prices have been showing uptrend due to weakness in global equity market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Saturday, the US, the UK and France conducted missile strikes over Syria. Geopolitical tensions, trade war between the US and China as well as rising crude oil prices are supporting gold.

The metal settled at $1,347.80 per troy ounce on Friday in the international market, marking second straight weekly rise in a row. In intraday trade, gold had touched $1,365 levels. On the domestic front, the yellow metal settled at Rs 31,118 per 10 gramme last week.

Last week, minutes from Federal Reserve’s last policy meet hinted at a possibility of aggressive interest rate hikes in 2018, which further boosted gold prices.

The metal is sustaining above $1,333 levels in the international market, and supportive fundamentals are signalling fresh round of rally.

On Wednesday (April 18), India will celebrate Akshaya Tritiya, which is considered as an auspicious day to buy gold.

Investors, who have continued to buy gold on Akshaya Tritiya over the last 20 years, gained returns of almost 10 per cent year-on-year. We expect gold to deliver positive returns this year as well.

Price chart of gold
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(Source: Investing.com)

Technical view

Gold is trading above $1,344 level in the international market, which is near to its next resistance at $1,353. Looking at the technical charts, gold can breach its resistance level of $1,353-1,365 in days to come.

Gold is forming higher top higher bottom on the charts, and is giving signal of further upside. If gold is able to sustain above $1,344 in the next two-three trading sessions, then it can test $1,353-$1,385 levels.

A close below $1,344 for three straight sessions will take downwards till $1,333-1,324 levels.

At the MCX, gold will benefit for a weak rupee. If gold is able to sustain above Rs 31,130 levels for two-three sessions, then it could test Rs 31,500-31,950 zones.

On the downside, if the yellow metal breaches and sustains below Rs 31,000 for two-three trading session, it could fall towards Rs 30,800-30,600 levels.

Still, chances of any downside are remote, and gold will continue to show strength in the days to come.

Investors can buy and accumulate gold in the range of Rs 31,150-31,000 with strict stop loss below Rs 30,800 on a closing basis for the upside targets of Rs 31,500-31,680-31,950.

Recommendations
Buy gold at Rs 31,150-31,000 | Stop loss below Rs 30,800 | Upside targets Rs 31,500-31,680-31,950.

(Manoj Kumar Jain is Director of Commodity and Currency at IndiaNivesh Commodities. He has 20 years of experience in financial service sector. Views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not represent those of ETMarkets.com. Readers are advised to consult their financial advisers before taking any position based on these observations)

Source: Economic Times