Analyst Corner: Maintain ‘hold’ on TCS with revised TP of Rs 1,935

Analyst Corner: Maintain ‘hold’ on TCS with revised TP of Rs 1,935

TCS reported an in-line Q2FY19 with revenue growth in constant currency (CC) terms being 3.7% quarter-on-quarter (I-Sec: 4% quarter-on-quarter) and EBIT margin expanding by 150 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 26.5% (I-Sec: 26.5%). Revenue growth was 11.5% year-on-year in CC terms with the management expecting year-on-year revenue growth in CC terms to sustain in double-digits in H2FY19. Revenue growth, as expected, was driven by the BFSI and Retail/CPG verticals (3.5% and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter respectively in CC terms) with continued ramp-up of platform deals helping growth in “Regional Markets & Others” (7.3% quarter-on-quarter in CC terms).

TCS is seeing strong resonance from clients for its transformational offerings like location agnostic agile and Machine First Delivery Model (MFDM). Management is seeing a structural uptick in the BFSI vertical in North America though commentary on Retail/CPG vertical was more guarded with macro driven client specific issues still within a realm of possibility (though management is seeing no such issues on the ground as of now).

Deal TCV was $4.9 billion in the quarter, flattish quarter-on-quarter, implying a book-to-bill ratio of just 0.94x. However, we see limited revenue signalling from the deal TCV as digital deals would increasingly form a higher proportion of the book which given their quicker revenue conversion can still drive revenue growth in- line with expectations despite book-to-bill ratio being <1x. Also, backlog should be stronger, given that most of large platform centric deals were signed in H2FY18, which will fully ramp-up only in H2FY19.

Higher fresher hiring plans of 28,000 for FY20 against 20,000 fresher offers for FY19, when attrition is largely benign, is also an indicator of management’s higher confidence in the demand environment.

We reiterate HOLD rating on TCS with a revised target price of `1,935 as we lower the target multiple to 20x (from 21x earlier) given higher macroeconomic uncertainty. Constant currency margin expansion of 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter was also modestly lower than our expectations.

Source: Financial Express