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China’s tax cut, higher stockpiles to send Copper prices lower


Sakina Mandsaurwala

Precious metal complex ended the week almost unchanged. Base metal prices ended the week on a positive note, however, the delay in the US-China trade deal and slowdown in Eurozone and Chinese economic data might create confusion in the investor’s positioning going forward.

Aluminium and Zinc prices ended with most gains of 3.5 percent and 4 percent, respectively, while Copper, Lead and Nickel gave up gains by the end of the week on increasing stockpiles and lower demand.

Crude oil prices continued to trade higher ending the week by 5 percent, while Nymex natural gas closed the week with 0.5 percent losses. Crude oil prices jumped on OPEC cuts and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran increasing the supply shortfall fears. Natural gas prices remained stable due to larger than expected storage gas withdrawals during the end of winter season.

Copper prices rallied towards $6500 per tonne on increased optimism over US-China trade deal but the prices reversed gains after the delay in announcement of the deal.

Chinese economic data points to relatively sluggish growth. China is likely to implement a major tax cut policy for the benefit of the manufacturers on April 1. This move will be a dampener for copper prices as the cost of refining the metal will drop. Other negative for the price of copper is back to back increase in copper stockpiles.

LME Copper price is expected to come down towards $6200 per tonne on account of these negatives. At present, Copper prices are trading at $6430 per tonne. Though, traders should keep strict stop loss levels as US-China trade deal announcement is a major event risk for the trade.

The author is Commodity Analyst at Narnolia Financial Advisors.

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Source: Money Control