Parth Nyati, Founder, Tradingo:
The market witnessed a late trade sell-off after news that Germany is going for full lockdown. The overall texture of the market is weak where Nifty is witnessing selling pressure at pullback. Nifty tried to respect its 20-Week EMA but 17600 acted as a strong resistance that was strong support earlier.
On the downside, a swing low of 17216 is an immediate support level but it is under threat where Nifty is likely to head towards 100-DMA which is currently placed at 17100 level.
We will have F&O expiry tomorrow and expiry is all about momentum where momentum is in favor of bears for time being. If we look at the options data then 17500 PE writers were active and showing confidence for a major part of the day but they were on the backfoot after Germany news, therefore, we saw sharp selling pressure in the last hour.
Bank Nifty outperformed today on the back of buying interest in ICICI Bank and Kotak Bank but it is vulnerable for further sell-off till trades below 38000-38500 supply zone. On the downside, 37000-36500 is acting as an immediate support zone while it is likely to head towards its 200-DMA which is currently placed at 35700 level.
Sugandha Sachdeva, VP- Commodity & Currency Research, Religare Broking:
The Indian rupee is likely to witness depreciation all over again amid the broad strength witnessed in the dollar index and a rebound in crude oil prices from multi-week lows. Greenback has been on a strong run scaling to its highest levels for the year as the Fed’s chair renomination for a second term has reinforced the belief that the US Fed will hike interest rates around mid-2022, with inflation running at levels not seen in decades.
As of now domestic currency is likely to hover in the band of 73.60-74.60 in the near term, where markets would be closely eyeing the release of Fed meeting minutes to get a sense about the pace of tapering and timing of rate hikes by the US Fed.
Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking:
Markets resumed the corrective phase after a day of pause and lost half a percent. The move was lackluster for most of the session and the benchmark hovered in a narrow range amid mixed cues. However, selling pressure in the last one and a half hours dragged the index to the day’s low. Consequently, the Nifty closed around 17,415; down by 0.5%. Amid all, sectoral indices traded mixed wherein IT, auto and FMCG ended lower while media, finance and PSU banks were on the positive side.
The news of the COVID situation worsening globally has started weighing on the sentiment along with the inflation fear. And since there’s no major event on the domestic front, markets will continue to take cues from global counterparts.
At the same time, the scheduled monthly expiry would keep the traders busy on Thursday. We suggest continuing with negative bias on the index while keeping a check on leveraged positions. Nifty has next major support around 17,150 zone.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:
In the case of Nifty, the recent bounce retraced 38.2% of the previous decline from 18210 to 17216. The key Fibonacci level, which is near 17600 acted as a crucial barrier. Thereon the index nosedived towards the end of the session.
Nevertheless, today’s late selloff appears to be a part of the pullback, which is breaking up into lower degree waves. The index is expected to attract buying support again near the lower end of the falling channel. Thus on the downside, 17300-17200 is a cushion for the Nifty. Unless that breaks on a closing basis, the index is expected to witness gradual recovery.
Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities:
Benchmark indices witnessed a highly volatile session on November 24 with Nifty closing below 17500 dragged by Auto, IT, FMCG stocks. Sensex was down by 323.34 points (-0.55%) and closed at 58340.99,and Nifty was down by 88.30 points (-.50%) and closed at 17,415.05
On the technical front, immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 are 17300 and 17630 respectively. For Bank Nifty support and resistance are 36800 and 37600 respectively.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities:
After a sharp recovery on Tuesday, the markets lost ground once again due to tepid global market conditions and profit booking at higher levels in the last hour of trading session.
While Nifty failed to surpass the 17600 resistance level, the index has formed a bearish candle along with lower top formation.
Ahead of the monthly F&O November series expiry the market is likely to trade within the range of 17340 to 17520. Below 17340, the uptrend would be vulnerable.
Sachin Gupta, AVP, Research at Choice Broking:
After a positive opening, the benchmark index was trading in the range, but in the second half of the session, the index wiped out all the day’s gains and shifted into negative territory. Finally, the index has settled at 17415.05 levels with 0.5% losses while Bank Nifty has managed to hold the gains, closed at 37441.90 with 0.45% gains.
Technically, on the daily chart the index has failed to sustain at higher territory as it has tasted the neckline of the Head & Shoulder pattern and moved lower again, which indicates some weakness for the coming day.
However, the previous day, the index took good support at lower Bollinger Band formation and pulled up from 17200 levels, which acts as immediate support for the near term.
At present, the Nifty has immediate support at 17200 levels while resistance at 17650 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 36650 levels and resistance at 38000 levels.
Emkay Global Financial Services:
The fx market is stuck in a lackluster trading range, with focus being on tonight’s Fed minutes and slew of US economic data. Only an upbeat data with marginally hawkish FOMC minutes will bolster the case that the US consumer is in good shape and increase bets for an earlier than expected rate hike, appreciating the USDINR spot.
Despite this eventful week, the USDINR 1-MONTH ATM Volatility is around 4.4%, and the Option Max Pain suggest that the Nov contract will expire around 74.50, so we broadly expect the USDINR spot to continue trading in between 74.00-74.75.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:
Unable to hold onto its gains, domestic indices edged lower in today’s tumultuous session amid mixed sentiments across global peers. Despite surging inflation, the Euro-zone business activity jumped to 55.8 in November from 54.2 in October, instilling hope in investors.
The banking sector was in the radar today as the government proposed to privatise two banks along with making banking amendments for the winter session to facilitate PSB privatization.
S Hariharan, Head- Sales Trading, Emkay Global Financial Services:
Overhang from a number of new listings and pipeline of offerings in the coming few weeks has led to broad market weakness in the last 1 week. Banking names are consensus overweight for domestic & foreign institutions and net sell flow has caused these to under-perform the market.
As net long positioning in the market has tilted significantly towards retail segment, potential for further weakness is significant.
Futures rollover basis has been cheaper than fair levels, suggesting that longs are reluctant to roll over positions. Consumer staples and auto sectors appear oversold and positioning tilted towards excessive shorts, while IT, Metals & PSU names are consensus long sectors and may under-perform going ahead.
Market Close: Benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile session on November 24 dragged by the auto, IT, FMCG stocks, while banks provided some support.
At close, the Sensex was down 323.34 points or 0.55% at 58,340.99, and the Nifty was down 88.30 points or 0.50% at 17,415. About 1950 shares have advanced, 1249 shares declined, and 142 shares are unchanged.
Tata Consumer Products, Eicher Motors, Infosys, Maruti Suzuki and Grasim Industries were among major losers on the Nifty. Gainers included ONGC, Adani Ports, Coal India, Kotak Mahindra Bank and BPCL.
Among sectors, auto, FMCG and IT indices fell 1 percent each, while buying was seen in the oil & gas and banking names. BSE midcap index fell 0.5 percent, while smallcap index added 0.4 percent.
Sensex Can Hit 70,000 By December 2022: Morgan Stanley
“We have tactically downgraded India to equal-weight in our emerging markets country portfolio,” the brokerage said. However, India continues to be in a structural uptrend with a likely new profit cycle, it added.
