India is expected to become world’s third largest economy by 2029 due to the path taken by the country since 2014, SBI Ecowrap report said.
The share of India’s GDP is now at 3.5 per cent, as against 2.6 per cent in 2014 and is likely to cross 4 per cent in 2027, the current share of Germany in global GDP.
India has undergone a large structural shift since 2014 and is now the 5th largest economy.
Interestingly, India had surpassed UK as the 5th largest economy as early as December 2021 itself and not recently as is being claimed.
“The path taken by India since 2014 reveals India is likely to get the tag of 3rd largest economy in 2029, a movement of 7 places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th. India should surpass Germany in 2027 and most likely Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth,” the report said.
“In coming days India is likely to be the beneficiary as China slows down in terms of new investment intentions,” the report added.
India’s GDP growth in Q1FY23 was 13.5 per cent. At this rate, India is likely to be the fastest growing economy in the current fiscal. Interestingly, even as estimates of India’s GDP growth rate for FY23 currently range from 6.7 per cent to 7.7 per cent, we firmly believe that it is immaterial.
“In a world that is ravaged by uncertainties, we believe 6 to 6.5 per cent growth is the new normal. Nevertheless, we make a passionate urge to update the IIP basket that is composed of a 2012 set of products and is hopelessly outdated.”