India’s GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY22 will be released today. India’s economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter and is expected to grow between 3.5-5.5 percent, economists predict. Here are five indicators one should keep an eye out for.
As per
, in CY21, nominal private consumption expenditure (PCE) grew 16.8% (after contracting 3% in CY20) and real PCE grew 9.1% (after contracting 7.3% in CY20). Private consumption saw a 7% expansion on an annual basis in the Q3FY22 reading. Analysts have attributed faster growth in passenger traffic, petrol sales, and personal credit for the strength seen in private consumption.
The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) saw a growth of roughly 2% in the third quarter of the previous fiscal. It was only 1.4% higher than the pre-Covid level which shows the tentativeness of the investment cycle. It had grown by 14.6% YoY in the previous quarter & has been forecast to ease to 1.3%
The services GVA surpassed pre-Covid levels in Q3, and saw a rise of 8.2% on an annual basis, aided by considerably improved vaccination coverage. Growth in the services sector eased to 8.2% in Q3 after growing over 10% each in Q1 & Q2.
Overall, GVA is expected to moderate to 4.1% in the final quarter of FY22, from 4.7% in Q3, led by services which is expected to rise to 6.1%.
Manufacturing saw a marginal rise of 0.2% in Q3. The rising input costs are likely to have taken a toll on their activity and may have hurt corporate margins. The sector had grown 5.6% in Q2.
Overall, industrial output surpassed the pre-Covid level in Q3 by 6.5%, driven by the 8.6% increase in the GVA of manufacturing, as per
.
Another indicator to watch out for would be the Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE). GFCE growth had moderated to 3.4% in Q3 from 9.3% in Q2. In disaggregated terms, analysts expect the YoY growth in GFCE to rise to 11.7% in Q4.
