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Lackluster Australia Employment Report to Drag on AUD/USD Rate

Trading the News: Australia Employment Change

Updates to Australia’s Employment report may do little to alter the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as the economy is anticipated to add 18.0K jobs in December.

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Signs of easing job growth may drag on the Australian dollar as it clouds the economic outlook, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on February 5 as ‘there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.

However, another above-forecast print along with a pickup in the Participation Rate may put pressure on Governor Philip Lowe & Co. to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low especially as discouraged workers return to the labor force. In turn, a positive development may spark a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as it spurs bets for an RBA rate-hike in 2019. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Impact that Australia Employment report has had on AUD/USD during the last print

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

NOV

2018

12/20/2018 00:30:00 GMT

20.0K

37.0K

+5

-4

November 2018Australia Employment Change

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

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Australia added another 37.0K jobs in November, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly climbed to 5.1% from 5.0% per annum in October as the Participation Rate increased to 65.7% from a revised 65.5% during the same period. A deeper look at the report showed the expansion was led by a 43.4K rise in part-time employment, while full-time positions narrowed 6.4K following the 39.5K expansion in October.

Nevertheless, the reaction to the better-than-expected Employment report was short-lived, with AUD/USD consolidating throughout the day to close at 0.7106. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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  • The AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash unravels following the failed attempt to close above the 0.7230 (61.8% expansion) region, and recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) casts a bearish outlook for the exchange rate as the oscillator responds to the bearish formation carried over from late-2018.
  • In turn, a break/close below the 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement) area raises the risk for a move back towards 0.7020 (50% expansion, which largely lines up with the 2018-low (0.7021), with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6850 (78.6% expansion).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

Source: dailyfx.com