NEW DELHI: With the Indian rupee crossing the 80 level against the US dollar, experts say the changing dynamics in the forex market can be a tailwind for stock investors in a turbulent market if their portfolios are positioned accordingly.
While the strategy is simple – increase weightage on exporters and trim holdings in importers – understanding the nuances is important as a complex web of triggers are at play.
Analysts say that while the rupee depreciation benefits exporters like IT, pharma, textiles, tea, speciality chemicals, autos and auto components, the extent of gains depends on many other factors. For instance, in IT, cross currency movements take away some benefits of rupee depreciation. Also, the much-feared recession or slowdown might impact order flows to IT companies.
“In pharma, even though we are a major exporter ($24 billion in FY22), we also import a large quantity of inputs for the industry. This takes away some benefits of rupee depreciation,” Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at
, told ETMarkets.
He said a clear beneficiary would be auto and auto component exporters who gain from the twin benefits of rupee depreciation and the recent decline in metal prices. Textiles also stand to reap good benefits.
According to reports, a 5 per cent fall in INR positively impacts the earnings of
by 7 per cent, 6.5 per cent and 7.5 per cent. On the other hand, the earnings of companies like IndiGo, , and get adversely impacted with a dip in rupee.
Rishiraj Maheshwari, founder of RISCH Wealth and Family Office, likes , , and KPIT. He suggests chemicals, OMCs and electronics may suffer due to importers needing to pay more to buy dollars.
Manish Sonthalia of
AMC finds services more favourably placed than manufacturing companies. “IT, pharma, engineering exports, apparel exports are likely beneficiaries,” he said.
The Indian rupee, which has historically depreciated against the US dollar at an annual run rate of around 4 per cent, has dipped over 7 per cent so far in 2022 as investors scramble for the safe haven currency in turbulent times. Nomura expects INR to hit the 82 mark against USD this quarter.
Although not less risky, a simple way to gain from rupee’s slide is to park a percentage of your portfolio in the dollar with the help of US ETFs and stocks.
“As an Indian investor, one would be well advised to dollarise their investments as the rupee is expected to decline further this year,” said Asheesh Chanda, Founder and CEO, Kristal.AI.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)