Sensex plunged 549 points on Friday, giving up 49,100. Nifty 50 ended the day’s trade below 14,500. Bharti Airtel shares jumped 4% while Tech Mahindra stocks dropped 4%.
While many suggest that India’s share markets have priced in a swift earnings recovery, global brokerage and research firm Morgan Stanley believes there is further scope for positive surprises. Aided by this view Morgan Stanley has increased its ‘overweight’ position on India, along with Korea and Brazil. The adjustment is made by reducing its rating on MSCI China to ‘equal-weight’. In a recent note, co-authored by Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi, Morgan Stanley said that India could outperform emerging markets in 2021.
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Only 4 of the 30 Sensex participants were seen trading in green just minutes ahead of the closing bell. Bharti Airtel was the top gainer, followed by ITC, Bajaj Auto, and Bajaj Finance.
Sensex trimmed some losses and regained 49,000 less than an hour ahead of the closing bell. Nifty 50 was seen closing in on 14,500.
Out of 30 Sensex stocks, just three scrips, Bharti Airtel, ITC and Bajaj Auto were trading in the green. On the flip side, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, UltraTech Cement and HCL Tech were among top index losers.
Sensex plunges 560 points or 1.13 per cent to 49,024, while the broader Nifty 50 index declines 171 points or 1.17 per cent to rule at 14,424.30.
Check live Sensex, Nifty levels
Sensex was down more than 400 points as Dalal Street neared the close of the day’s trade. Nifty 50 was trading below 14,500.
Asian shares fell Friday after a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report and a late slide in several Big Tech stocks left major indexes lower on Wall Street. U.S. futures lost ground after President-elect Joe Biden announced his plans to propose a USD 1.9 billion package to help along a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Biden spoke about the plan after Thursday’s market close.
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Indian share markets have now entered the overbought territory, going by billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s favourite stock market indicator. The market capitalization to GDP ratio of domestic stock markets at Thursday’s close topped 100% for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008. Often called the Warren Buffett indicator, after the legendary investor who invented his gauge, an aggregate market cap above 100% of the country’s GDP hints at stock markets trading with stretched valuations. India’s market capitalization to GDP ratio was just 56% at the end of the last financial year 2020.
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Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) shares were trading firm in otherwise weak trade on Friday. HPCL share price has rallied 53.54 per cent From the March lows of Rs 155 apiece. Analysts at Goldman Sachs see over 35 per cent rally in the share price, and have added it to the buy conviction list. The research firm has raised its 12-month target price by 12 per cent to Rs 320 apiece, which is the highest in its Asia refining coverage.
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HCL Tech reported a 4.4% qoq growth in revenues to USD 2617mn which was ahead of our estimates of USD 2,598. In rupee terms consolidated revenue increased by 3.8% qoq to ₹19,302 crore while gross profits increased by 5.8% qoq to ₹8,107 crore. Net profit for the quarter was up by 26.3% qoq to ₹3,918 crore. Management has increased their guidance for Q4FY21 to 2.0-3.0% growth in revenue in constant currency terms. While the Q1FY21 numbers were marginally ahead of our estimates in terms of revenue growth the expansion in margins despite wage hikes during the quarter was a pleasant surprise. We continue to remain positive on HCL Technologies and have a target price of ₹1,180 on the stock,” said Jyoti Roy – DVP- Equity Strategist, Angel Broking.
Only six of the thirty Sensex constituents were up in the green on Friday morning. Bharti Airtel was the top gainer, followed by Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, TCS, Reliance Industries, and NTPC.
Improving pay-out. CESC reported consolidated profits of Rs 3.2bn (+23% yoy) and standalone profits of Rs 1.8 bn (+3.4% yoy). Profits at Dhariwal (600MW) improved to Rs 280 mn compared to a loss of Rs 150 mn in 3QFY20—a key driver for strong consolidated performance. CESC trades at 6.5X P/E on earnings of FY2022E, with continued improvement from earnings of Dhariwal. A healthy Rs 45/share of interim dividend shows intent of the company to increase the pay-out ratio and right-size the balance sheet. Maintain BUY rating with revised FV of Rs 815/share (from Rs 800/share).
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The NSE Nifty 50 index will soon be up for its half-yearly shuffle, where state-owned natural gas transmission firm GAIL could exit the 50-stock benchmark. Replacing it could be yet another Tata Group company, Tata Consumer, according to brokerage and research firm ICICI Securities. The expected changes could come into force by March this year. GAIL’s free-float market capitalization currently stands at Rs 19,100 crore while that of Tata Consumer is at Rs 31,200 crore. GAIL shares have zoomed 49% in the last six months, while Tata Consumer stock has gained 46%.
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The Rs 4,633-crore Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) initial public offer (IPO) is set to open for subscription on Monday, January 18, 2021, in the price band of Rs 25-26 apiece. At the upper end of the price band, IRFC would raise Rs 4,455 crore, and at the lower end, Rs 4,633 crore. The anchor book will open today (Friday, January 15, 2021) and will be allocated up to 60 per cent of the portion reserved for QIBs, to build investor confidence on the IPO.
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“The resistance patch of 14600-14650 has been very effective. The markets are finding it difficult to move up. We need to get past 14700 in order to resume this uptrend. If the market manages to cross that level, the index should go up to levels closer to 15000. On the flip side, if we break the support of 14350, we can drop to 14000,” said Manish Hathiramani, Proprietary Index Trader and Technical Analyst, Deen Dayal Investments.
As the domestic equities trading at record highs with the optimism of vaccine roll-out, investors might look for some profit-taking ahead Union Budget which will be presented on Feb 1st. If so happens, then we might see the USDINR pair moving close to 73.30-73.50 region. Also, intervention from RBI’s end as witnessed yesterday shall further accelerate this move and could cap the gains around 72.80 levels, if any due to persistent foreign inflows. As the near term range of the USDINR pair is confined between 73.00-73.50 levels, one can buy on dips between 73.00-73.10 levels and near term exposures can be targeted to be sold near 73.40-73.50 levels.: Amit Pabari, managing director, CR Forex Advisors
Broader markets were outperforming benchmarks on Friday. Nifty Midcap 50 index was up 0.42% while the smallcap 50 index gained 0.62%. Volatility inched higher.
Sensex opened flat with a negative bias on Friday morning only to soon start dancing between gains and losses. Nifty was hovering around 14,600.
Indian markets are likely to open with a flat to negative bias amid mixed global cues as optimism surrounding additional relief package by the newly elected US president was negated by the higher than expected initial jobless claims data.
~ ICICI Securities
Sensex closed Friday’s pre-open session up 76 points while Nifty 50 was seen slipping 1.25 points as it gave up 14,600.
Nifty was nearing 14,600 in pre-open on Friday but was still trading with gains. Sensex was up more than 100 points.
Nifty gained to surged to test 14,700 in pre open, while S&P BSE Sensex zoomed nearly 100 points.
“The underlying trend of Nifty remains range-bound with positive bias. There is a possibility of further upside and new high formation above 14653 levels in the next couple of sessions, but one needs to be cautious about sharp profit booking from the new highs in the next 1-2 sessions. Immediate support is placed at 14460 levels,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
Nifty futures were trading weak in early trade on Friday, down 54,50 points or 0.37 per cent on Singaporean Exchange, hinting at a gap-down down start for BSE Sensex and Nifty 50. Corporate earning, oil prices, COVID-19 vaccine rollout, rupee movement and other global cues are likely to sway the market today. Besides, Budget session will start from January 29, 2021, and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2021 on February 1.
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Call Open Interest (OI) is maximum at 15000 strike with 24.34 lakh contracts, this is followed by 13.90 lakh contracts at 14000 strike.
For the January series, most Put OI is placed at 14000 strike with 30.56 lakh contracts, followed by 21.21 lakh contracts at 13500 strike.
“US stocks edged lower overnight as investors await the details of the incoming Biden administration’s plans for a new coronavirus relief package. After many dovish comments, US Federal Reserve’s chair Powell finished on an optimistic note, saying there are many reasons to think the economy could recover and do well, saying it could be back to pre-virus economic peak reasonably soon. Still, US equities were slightly weaker as investors continue to fret over rising US yields US10Y yields which reversed yesterday’s losses,” said Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at Axi.
HCL Technologies, PVR: A total of 16 companies including HCL Tech, PVR Ltd, Shoppers Stop, L&T Finance Holdings, Hathway Cable and Aditya Birla Money, among others are scheduled to announce their October-December quarter earnings later in the day today.
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The market valuation of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) crossed Rs 12 lakh crore-mark at close of trade on Thursday, helped by a rally in its share price. TCS topped the gainers’ chart on Sensex, rising 2.89 per cent to close at Rs 3,250.15 on the BSE. During the day, it jumped 3.42 per cent to a record high of Rs 3,267.
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MSCI on Thursday said it would revise Bharti Airtel’s weight owing to the change in its Foreign inevitable limit earlier this month. MSCI said the changes would come as a part of its index review in February. Bharti Airtel’s foreign investable limit has been revised to 100% from 49% earlier.
