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Trade setup: Nifty must cross double top hurdle at 12,103 to extend rally

After three sessions of losses, the domestic stock market finally formed a base and moved higher on Wednesday. NSE Nifty defended its crucial levels despite making a negative start and slipping below the 12,000 level during the day. The index made a sharp recovery at the fag-end and ended with a gain of 49 points or 0.41 per cent at 12,043.20.

In the previous note, we had mentioned that holding the short-term 20-DMA would be necessary for the index. In the last session, Nifty took support at this zone, and on Wednesday also, it defended the 20-DMA level, which stood at 11,980.

We will see weekly expiry options on Thursday, and strike of 12,100 holds the highest open interest. There are chances that Nifty may again attempt to move past the crucial double top resistance level at 12,103.

Thursday’s session is likely to see a positive start, with 12,105 and 12,168 levels acting as resistance. Supports may come in at 11,980 and 11,935.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 59.26 and stayed neutral, showing no divergence against the price.

The daily MACD was bearish and traded below its signal line. No significant formations were observed on the candles.

As per pattern analysis, Nifty has continued to resist the double top resistance at the 12,103 level on a closing basis despite marking incremental highs. Despite bearishness in the past three sessions, the index has held on to its short-term support of 20-DMA at 11,980.

We expect the market to trade on a positive note on Thursday. Dalal Street will also react to the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy outcome. There are expectations that the central bank will go for another interest rate cut and keep an accommodative stance to boost growth.

We would again advise traders to avoid short positions and continue to approach the market on a cautiously positive note.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at [email protected])

Source: Economic Times