Indian stock markets tumbled on the monthly derivative expiry day with Sensex tumbling over 800 points while Bank Nifty tanking 2.3%. The Nifty is also in danger of breaching its key support level of 17800. Nifty’s volatility index climbed as much as 10%. Stocks of Adani group companies fell between 2% and 5% after short-seller Hindenburg Research said it holds short positions in those firms through US-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivative instruments.
“We are seeing a lot of volatility, especially in the light of the Adani report, and with monthly expiry for futures and options today and before the budget,” said Samrat Dasgupta, chief executive officer of Esquire Capital Investment Advisors.
Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Bank Nifty was under additional pressure after breaching the support level of 42,500.
According to Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities, “Indian stocks were unable to break its immediate hurdle placed at 18,200 to 18,250 levels and hence profit-booking was anticipated today due to January series expiry. Today, market has fallen because traders and investors are squaring off their position. However, Nifty has managed to sustain above its strong support zone placed at 17,770 to 17,800 zone and this should be taken as a crucial zone ahead of the Union Budget 2023. I am expecting that Dalal Street would remain volatile till budget is presented and hence traders and investors are advised to keep focus on the pivot levels instead of the market volatility and maintain strict stop loss in current market scenario.”
Experts say that Nifty is still in the 17,800 to 18,200 range and a breakout on either side could give a direction to the market.
“Two major events of February 1st – the Union Budget and the Fed decision on interest rate – have the potential to break this range. A good budget and positive commentary from the Fed can break the upper band. On the contrary, any negative budget proposal like raising the rate of Long Term Capital Gains Tax or a worse-than- expected hawkish Fed can break the lower end of the range. Let’s wait for the actual outcome,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Indian markets will be closed on Thursday for a public holiday.
Divam Sharma, founder at Green Portfolio, a SEBI Registered Portfolio Management Service Provider, said: “We have a monthly expiry today, where we have seen a lot of long F&O positions being squeezed and margin calls from brokers have resulted in further selling pressure. However, we are bullish on the markets at current levels. The talks on interest rate hikes by US Fed reaching their peak soon has started and this will be positive for the markets over the coming months. We should see more allocation coming back to equity asset classes, particularly in emerging markets. US Dollar index has fallen from a peak of 114.78 to 102, which is again positive for the emerging markets like India. We believe that the markets are a clear buy at these levels. 17750 is a good support zone for the markets and we do not expect it to break considering above factors. We are all looking forward to a positive budget over the coming week.”
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