Hi there, ETMarkets Special Weekend Podcast. And I am Saloni Goel. We will be talking about the damage that Covid-19 had caused to the Indian economy and if it can actually push us into a recession.
The rapid spread of the virus has disrupted economies globally, as much of the world has gone into lockdowns. In India, we may have done well in terms of being able to get a handle on the situation by being ahead of the curve, but the 21-day lockdown of 130 crore people has resulted in massive disruptions and dislocations of the economy and businesses. It has slammed the brakes on economic activity, risking major loss of earnings and jobs. That has cast a pal of gloom on the short-term growth outlook of the economy, particularly for the first half of FY21. Fitch has cut India’s FY21 GDP growth projection to 2%, the lowest in 30 years. Another analyst said he won’t be surprised if India ends up clocking negative GDP growth in the worst-case scenario.
So, how bad can this get really?
We have with us Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist at ICRA, to share her outlook and thoughts on this issue.
Hello Aditi, welcome to the show.
1) How much impact could the coronavirus-led disruptions may have on the economy in March and June quarters? What are your own projections?
2) How much money the Indian economy is expected to lose due to the ongoing 21-day lockdown?
3) IMF and other agencies have forecast a recession for the global economy. Can Indian too see for a recession-like situation? Support your answer.
4) Which sectors do you think will revive first once this crisis gets over?
5) Which are the key risks do you see for the Indian economy after this lockdown ends?
That’s it in this week’s edition of special weekend podcast. Do come back next Saturday for this weekly special. You can check out our regular podcasts on the equity market twice every week day.
