Investors are keeping a key eye on Tuesday’s US consumer prices data followed by Thursday’s retail sales report. These are the last major data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate move next week. Even though the fuel prices may have contributed to the easing of inflation, Fed is expected to continue with its rate hike policy.
Cipla stock one of the biggest laggards in today’s session, slips almost 1%
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Ashika Group & Univest views on Russia offering India oil at cheaper rates
Amit Jain, Co-founder, Ashika Global Family Office Services: Buying oil from Russia has a simple business logic that we may get Oil at least 30% to 40% discount as compared to prevailing market rate. Currently, India imports only 19% of its overall oil import from Russia. However, in current situation Oil is hovering around $90 to $100, which can impact India’s fiscal deficit badly. If you closely observe annual Indian budget, then you will find Indian government has projected oil prices to be hovering around $70 to $80 during their financial year 2022-2023. If we compare budget oil prices compared to current market prices then current market prices are almost 30% higher. Hence in my personal view, Indian Government should look at importing 40% oil from Russia at least in the short term, till the oil prices gets settle down to its long-term average of $70 per barrel.
Pranit Arora, Co Founder & CEO of Univest: Russia is offering discounted oil to India in a bid to counter the G7 proposal to put a cap on Russian oil. It is expected that India does not support the G7 proposal in liue of cheaper oil. It is interesting to note that Russian oil contributed to less than 1% of India’s oil imports prior to the Russia Ukraine conflict. It now stands close to 18%.
It is most likely that India will continue to import Russian oil as long as it gets a price advantage. The petroleum minister has said they will look at the G7 proposal very carefully. He also added that the world is still adjusting to the impact of the pandemic. Analysts tracking the oil sector view the G7 proposal may backfire if the largest importers of Russian oil, I.e China and India choose to look at their own interests.
Japan’s Nikkei tracks Wall St higher before U.S. CPI; Nintendo jumps
Japan’s Nikkei share average closed higher on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street and led by gains in video game maker Nintendo, even as caution prevailed ahead of a key U.S. inflation report.
The Nikkei finished 0.25% higher at 28,614.63 after rising to 28,659.76, its highest since Aug. 26, earlier in the day. Of the index’s 225 components, 128 rose, 86 fell and 11 closed flat.
The broader Topix rose 0.32% to 1,986.57.
India’s job market outlook strong for Oct-Dec; 54% companies plan to hire
India’s hiring outlook remains strong with 54% of companies planning to hire in next three months amid predictions of growth opportunities for developing countries in the wake of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, says a survey.
According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey released on Tuesday, the labour market is indicating strong sentiments for October-December 2022.
The survey is based on interviews with more than 40,600 public and private employers across 41 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. (PTI)
Metal index gains more than 1%, all stocks in green
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India bonds gain, rupee at 1-month high despite inflation concerns
Indian government bond yields drifted lower today even as data released on Monday showed inflation stayed above the Reserve Bank of India’s target for eight straight months. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield was at 7.1473%, after ending at 7.1811% on Monday. Bond prices and yields are inversely related. Traders attributed the rise in bond prices to foreign investors buying Indian notes on likely inclusion in global indexes. (Full report)
Noon Update: Indices stable as Nifty crosses the coveted 18,000 mark and Sensex consolidates 60,000 mark further with 450 points added
Bajaj Finserv and HDFC Life gain the most in the rally with Financial Service and Consumer Durable indices leading the charts.
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HDFC Life Insurance shares jump after huge block deal
Shares of HDFC Life Insurance Company surged 2% on the BSE to ₹606 in Tuesday’s early deals after the UK-based investment company Abrdn said it is planning to sell 4.3 crore shares in the private sector insurer through block deal, reported PTI.
Shares of Coal India rose nearly 2 per cent in the morning trade on Tuesday
Shares of Coal India rose nearly 2 per cent in the morning trade on Tuesday as the government is set to auction 10 coal blocks under commercial coal mining this week.
Shares of Coal India opened at ₹233, then gained 1.64 per cent to ₹235.30 apiece on BSE.
On NSE, the scrip opened at ₹232.70 and climbed nearly 2 per cent to ₹235.30.
The government will auction 10 coal blocks under commercial coal mining this week as part of efforts to ramp up domestic coal output. (PTI)
Prabhudas Lilladher recommendations for Lux Industries and M&M
BUY LUX INDS CMP: 1883 TRGT: 2150 SL: 1750
The stock after the huge correction from the peak level of 4644 has bottomed out near the previous low of 1690 levels and maintained the levels as a strong support zone and has indicated a gradual rise with currently moving past the significant 50EMA level of 1860 to improve the bias and anticipate for further rise in the coming days. The RSI also has shown a significant pullback to improve the trend and has immense upside potential as indicated by the historical chart pattern. We suggest to buy and accumulate the stock for an upside target of 2150 keeping the stop loss of 1750.
Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN): Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs1,297 | TP: Rs1,400
M&M is one of our preferred picks in the auto space given (1) back-to-back successful launches in the highly competitive SUV space, (2) its leadership position in tractor industry, (3) its proactiveness to leverage the EV trend can lead to value unlocking and (4) its well-played out capital allocation strategy. Currently, we are not assigning any value to EVCo, as it doesn’t have any material presence in e-PV segment. However, success of XUV400 along with market share gains can re-rate the stock. Reiterate BUY with a Jun-24 target price of ₹1,400 (18x on core EPS and ₹285 for subsidiaries).
Ashish Kacholio portfolio: Multibagger specialty chemical stock hits fresh all-time high
Shares of Fineotex Chemical rallied more than 8% on the BSE to hit record high of ₹408 apiece on the BSE in Friday’s trading session. The specialty chemical stock has been in an upward moment since the past few session and has surged over 48% in the past month. The multibagger specialty chemical stock has jumped over 226% in a year’s period. (Full Report)
Inflation and supply disruptions top risks for Emerging Asia: Moody’s
Inflation and supply chain disruptions are the biggest risks over the next 12-18 months in Emerging Asia — China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, according to a poll conducted by global rating agency Moody’s Investors Service.
The poll was conducted at the recently held Emerging Market Summit Asia 2022.
These two risks, the rating agency said, were followed by the potential impact of rising interest rates and slower economic growth.
“Given the supply chain disruptions, multinational corporations have indicated a rising intention to relocate more manufacturing away from China. Still, we agree with panellists that China will remain embedded in many supply chains due to its comparative advantages,” said Jacintha Poh, a Senior Vice President at the rating agency. (ANI)
Yes Bank’s Economist report – ‘CPI: Shock from food inflation’
Indranil Pan – Chief Economist, Yes Bank:
· At 7.0% YoY, CPI inflation was higher in August than the 6.7% of July 2022 on account of higher food inflation. On MoM basis, inflation picked up by 0.52% in August vis-à-vis 0.46% in July.
· Notably, 4 out of 5 months in the fiscal year so far saw a 7%+ print.
· With the ban on broken rice and 20% excise duty on other categories of rice, the government endeavors to help to bring inflation lower.
· With significant amount of uncertainty on the inflation dynamics, we expect the RBI to remain front-footed with its rate action and call for a 50bps increase in the repo rate at the September 30 policy. This also sets in well with the hawkishness of major central banks of the world.
Crude prices subdued as worries over slowdown, China demand weigh
International crude oil prices traded on a subdued note on Tuesday after they recovered from the seven-month low levels in the previous session.
Global slowdown and anticipation of interest rate hikes by central banks along with the rising Covid-19 cases in China weighed on the investors sentiments. (Full Report)
Axis Securities PMS on Sensex reclaiming 60k and Nifty touching 18k: Advise investors to raise some cash at the current levels, which can be deployed if the markets correct
Naveen Kulkarni, chief investment officer, Axis Securities PMS: The current market buoyancy globally, including in India, is based on the expectation that inflation has peaked along with softening crude prices. We believe that, to an extent, the expectation of inflation peaking is right, but one will have to keep an eye on energy prices in Europe & US with the onset of winter, which can re-ignite the inflation fire. The current momentum in the equity markets can sustain, but we would advise investors to raise some cash at the current levels, which can be deployed if the markets correct on either rate hikes or energy prices moving up again.
INDIA BONDS-Bond yields dip on likely foreign bank buys; inflation concerns linger
Indian government bond yields turned lower after inching higher in early trades on Tuesday, likely led by purchases from foreign banks, even as inflation stayed above the central bank’s target for eight straight months.
Foreign banks are buying bonds as focus shifts back to Indian notes likely being included in global indexes, traders said.
The benchmark 10-year government bond yield was at 7.1473% as of 0450 GMT. The yield rose to 7.1931% earlier in the day after ending at 7.1811% on Monday. It had risen five bps in last two sessions.
“Inflation at 7% is still not bothering the markets, as index inclusion theme continues to play out,” said a trader with a private bank. (Reuters)
Fullerton India raises ₹2,795 crore through ECB
Non-bank lender Fullerton India Credit Company Ltd . on Monday said it has raised ₹2,795 crore, or around $350 million, through external commercial borrowings (ECBs).
The company said it has raised the loan at a margin of 122 basis points (bps) over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate for a tenor of five years from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. (SMBC), Singapore, through the parent route. The long tenor of the facility benefits overall asset liability management of the company, it said in a statement.
The past year, it said, has been transformative as the company became a consolidated subsidiary of Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), with SMFG acquiring 74.9% stake from Fullerton Financial Holdings (FFH). SMFG will eventually acquire 100% stake.
Nifty or Bank Nifty to touch record high first? Analyst says he is betting on…
Indian stock market benchmark Nifty today crossed the 18,000 mark, buoyed by positive global cues and expectations that Indian economy will grow at a steady pace despite fears of a global slowdown. The Nifty was up 0.6% to 18,046 and is about 3% away from all-time highs of 18,604. The banking sector index, Bank Nifty, is up 0.6% today to 40,804, off 2.5% from all-time highs.
Commenting on the recent uptrend in the market that has taken Nifty from 15,000 levels in June to 18,000 in three months, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, says this has become a classic momentum driven market which has the potential to take the indices to new record highs soon.
He expects Bank Nifty to be the first sector to touch new record highs since the segment has strong fundamental support and FIIs have turned big buyers in financials. (Read More)
Consumer Durable index once again shines today, up almost 1.5%
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India’s RBI may hike rates by 50 bps as inflation accelerates – analysts
The Reserve Bank of India may raise interest rates by another 50 basis points this month after data showed inflation rose further above the central bank’s tolerance limit in August, analysts said.
India’s retail inflation rate rose to 7.0% in August from 6.71% in the previous month, data released on Monday showed. The August reading was a tad above the 6.9% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Higher food inflation contributed to the increase in headline rate.
“From a policy perspective, another month of above-target inflation clears the path for further monetary tightening at the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting on 30 September,” said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays Bank. (Reuters)
Sony, Zee offer concessions to ease CCI’s concerns over merger: Report
A unit of Sony Group and India’s Zee Entertainment have proposed offering concessions such as pricing discounts to help ease concerns of the country’s antitrust regulator over their merger, which will create a $10-billion TV behemoth, two sources told Reuters.
In particular, the CCI was concerned over how big an impact on competition the merged entity would have in terms of advertising and channel pricing, particularly in the popular Hindi language segment. (Full Report)
Angel One view on Nifty: A move towards 18200–18350 in the near future is clearly on cards
Sameet Chavan, chief analyst-technical and derivatives, Angel One Ltd: Although key indices are lacking a bit of momentum, the undertone seems strongly bullish and as a result, the Nifty is now within a touching distance of the psychological mark of 18000. It’s merely a formality now, we would see it on the screen very soon. The real question is, does the market have enough legs to move beyond it to touch the record highs? In our sense, it’s happening sooner or later. Before this, a move towards 18200 – 18350 in the near future is clearly on cards. This view remains valid as long as Nifty defends 17700 – 17600 on a closing basis.
Yesterday, the banking had a fantastic start but follow-up was missing. Never mind, we reckon, BANKNIFTY is headed towards its all-time high before the benchmark index. Also, the IT showed a willingness to participate in the second straight session, which is an encouraging sign. In our sense, one should continue to remain positive and even if key indices consolidate a bit, the stock-specific action is likely to continue.
Japan’s Nikkei tracks Wall St higher, CPI caution caps gains; Nintendo jumps
Japan’s Nikkei share average followed Wall Street higher on Tuesday, although the gains were capped by caution ahead of a key U.S. inflation report, with shares of Nintendo leading gains on the benchmark index.
The Nikkei added 0.16% to 28.589.11 as of the midday break. Earlier it touched 28,659.76 for the first time since Aug. 26, but couldn’t hold that level as profit-taking buyers came in. Of the index’s 225 components, 134 rose versus 83 that fell, with eight flat.
The broader Topix rose 0.24% to 1,984.97.
The U.S. S&P 500 rallied more than 1% overnight leading up to Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report, which will be scrutinized for clues on how aggressive the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening campaign will be going forward. (Reuters)
Ashika Stock Broking on today’s market: Index is likely to open on a positive note and is likely to continue with its positive momentum
Tirthankar Das, technical & derivative analyst, retail, Ashika Stock Broking Ltd: On the technical front, Nifty formed yet another bullish candle on the daily chart but found resistance near the psychological level of 18000. However present setup indicates that Nifty is likely to head towards 18,300 in September 2022 as it is the swing high of January 2022. Nifty also registered a bullish golden crossover in August (50-DEMA crossing above 200-DEMA) implying major shift of momentum from a medium term perspective. Nifty also has given a conclusive breakout from eight month’s falling channel signalling end of corrective phase and breakout is well supported by sequential improvement in market breadth. Hence during the day index is likely to open on a positive note and is likely to continue with its positive momentum. Thus one can use dips towards 17,815-17,880 for creating long position for the target of 18,300 in near term.
IPOs deliver average 50% returns this year
Despite the fall in share sales through initial public offers so far this year, these issues have given a good 50 per cent average returns, while the Sensex gained only 1.6 per cent, shows an analysis. There were only eight big-ticket IPO issues – with the over ₹20,500-crore LIC being the biggest but one of the worst performers. (Full Report)
Bajaj Finserv adds 4% in early trading; Bajaj Finance also gains 1%
Shares of Bajaj Finserv started trading ex-split and bonus on the BSE in Tuesday’s trading session, a day ahead of the record date for the purpose of determining the members, eligible for the sub-division of existing equity shares and issue of bonus equity shares of the company. The stock rose nearly 5% to ₹1,791 apiece on the BSE.
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Nifty crosses 18,000 at open, Sensex adds 300 points. Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Life zooms
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Rice shipments stuck after govt imposes export duty
Exporters have sought a relaxed deadline for the clearance of around one million tonnes of rice stuck in transit after the government imposed a 20% export duty on some varieties of rice and banned broken rice exports. The Centre imposed a 20% export duty on some varieties of rice, banned broken rice exports. (Full Report)
Bitcoin surges above $22,000 while ether slips. Check cryptocurrency prices today
Bitcoin extended a rally amid a brighter mood in global markets and as traders await US inflation data and monitor a seminal upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain. The world’s largest and most popular cryptocurrency was trading more than 1% higher at $22,198. The global crypto market cap today was above the $1 trillion mark, even as it was down over a per cent in the last 24 hours at $1.1 trillion, as per CoinGecko. (Full Report)
Sensex preopens flat with a tilt towards green; Zee Entertainment, Adani Transmission, HDFC Life in focus
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Reliance Securities Stock in Focus: Kalpataru Power
STOCK IN FOCUS
Kalpataru Power (CMP Rs.424)
In the view of revenue visibility led by a healthy order inflow, sustained earnings momentum, lower debt and improvement in return ratios, we have our BUY rating on KPP, with a SOTPbased Target Price of Rs535.
Intraday Picks
RAMCOCEM (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 799) BUY
For today’s trade, long position can be initiated in the range of Rs796- 790 for the target of Rs823 with a strict stop loss of Rs779.
TORNTPHARM (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 1,504) SELL
For today’s trade, short position can be initiated in the range of Rs1,515-1,522 for the target of Rs1,470 with a strict stop loss of Rs1,535.
MFSL (PREVIOUS CLOSE: 787) SELL
For today’s trade, short position can be initiated in the range of Rs791- 795 for the target of Rs768 with a strict stop loss of Rs807.
Adani Transmission says following due process for dispute resolution with Reliance Infra
Adani Transmission Limited (ATL) on Monday said it is following the due process under the share purchase agreement (SPA) in dispute resolution with Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (R-Infra), part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group.
In a regulatory filing to the stock exchange, Adani Transmission Limited said, “Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (R-Infra), part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, initiated arbitration on one specific dispute under the Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) in December 2021. This was a claim for ₹500 Cr.” (ANI)
Tata group in talks with Bisleri to acquire a stake in the packaged water company
Tata Group is understood to have initiated talks with Bisleri International to acquire a stake in the packaged water company, according to sources.
It is in a very preliminary stage and would be premature to say a deal would fructify, a person in the know of the development said.
The Tata Group houses its consumer business under Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) which also sells packaged mineral water under the brand Himalayan and with brands as Tata Copper Plus Water and Tata Gluco in the hydration segment.
The talks are understood to have been initiated by the Tata group FMCG arm TCPL.
However, when contacted both the companies denied commenting over the development.
“Tata Consumer Products does not comment on market speculation,” said a Tata Consumer Products spokesperson in an e-mailed reply. (PTI)
Vietnam and India look to deepen economic cooperation
Vietnam came calling for investments to India on Monday as representatives of the country’s Khanh Hoa Province visited New Delhi. Speaking at an event organised by the Indian Chambers of Commerce and the Foreign Ministries of India and Vietnam, representatives from both countries set their sights squarely on achieving USD 15 billion in bilateral trade this year.
Vietnam’s Deputy Chief of Mission in India, Do Thanh Hai, pointed out that the visit marked one of the first visits by a provincial delegation from Vietnam seeking increased investment and trade ties. (Full Report)
Stocks to Watch: Zee Entertainment, Adani Transmission, Reliance, Tata Consumer, Vedanta, SpiceJet, HDFC Life, Future Lifestyle, Tata Consumer, and JSW Steel
Delta Corp, Ambuja Cement and Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd will be under the F&O ban list on Tuesday. These stocks will be under the ban for the F&O segment as they have crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL), as per the NSE. (Full Report)
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank IPO: Check GMP as all eyes on shares listing after allotment
The three-day initial public offer (IPO) of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank got subscribed 2.86 times on the last day of its oublic subscription that closed on September 7, 2022. The ₹831-crore public offer received bids for 2,49,39,292 shares against 87,12,000 shares on offer.
As per market observers, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank shares are available at a premium (GMP) of ₹5 in the grey market today. The finalisation of the share allotment is done this week and the shares of the company are expected to list on stock exchanges BSE and NSE this week on Thursday, September 15, 2022. (Full Report)
Oil prices edge higher on worries over tighter supply
Oil prices edged up early on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors worried about tight supply ahead of the winter heating season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Brent crude rose 5 cents to $94.05 a barrel by 0006 GMT, while WTI crude rose 7 cents to $87.85 a barrel.
Crude prices on both sides of the Atlantic have surged more than 15% this year due to uncertainties stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Energy costs have also soared with Moscow slashing gas supplies to Europe amid Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of its neighbour. (Reuters)
Rupee rises 4 paise to close at 79.53 against US dollar
The rupee pared its initial losses and settled 4 paise higher to close at 79.53 against the US dollar on Monday, tracking positive domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.
At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.66 against the greenback. It witnessed an intra-day high of 79.47 and a low of 79.72 during the session.
It finally ended at 79.53, up 4 paise from its previous close of 79.57.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.77 per cent to 108.17. (PTI)
Coal Ministry to start e-auction of 10 commercial coal mines from today
The Ministry of Coal had invited bids for coal mines for commercial coal mining. Technical evaluation of bids has been completed and forward e-auction for 10 coal mines will be launched today.
E-auction for eight coal mines will be conducted on 13th September and for two coal mines on 14th September 2022. The total peak rate capacity (PRC) of the mines being put up for e-auction is 39.31 million tonnes per annum. (Full Report)
Container shipping charter rates set for course correction: Report
Container shipping charter rates are set for a course correction after touching historical highs in 2021 and staying elevated so far this year, according to a report.
It also expects margins of the Indian shippers squeezing this fiscal even as they will be higher than the pre-Covid level.
Charter rates were up 156 per cent year-on-year for the first seven months of this year, according to Crisil Research.
Over the remaining months, however, the rates are expected to decline, though still ending the year 40-70 per cent higher, it said. (PTI)
UK’s Abrdn mulls to sell 4.3 cr HDFC Life shares to raise up to ₹2,425 crore
United Kingdom-based investment company Abrdn is mulling to sell up to 4.3 crore sales representing 2% of HDFC Life Insurance Company’s outstanding shares through a block deal to raise over ₹2,425 crore.
Formerly known as Standard Life Aberdeen, the Edinburgh-based firm has offered the shares in the price band of ₹564.1 to ₹578.55, which is a discount of up to 2.5% on the scrip’s close on 12 September in the block deal. (Read More)
Vedanta picks Gujarat for $20 billion India semiconductor foray
Vedanta Ltd has selected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat for its semiconductor project, two sources told Reuters, the first major step in its $20 billion joint venture with Taiwan’s Foxconn.
Vedanta obtained financial and non-financial subsidies including on capital expenditure and cheap electricity from Gujarat to build the semiconductor plants. (Full Report)
Depleting reserves spell risks for emerging Asian currencies like India
Emerging Asian central banks have seen a sharp depletion in their foreign-exchange reserves, stoking concerns it may crimp market interventions to curb currency losses in the face of the mighty dollar.
A closely-watched measure of reserves cover — the number of months of imports a country can finance with its foreign-exchange holdings — has dropped to about seven for EM Asia ex-China, the lowest since the global financial crisis in 2008, according to Standard Chartered Plc. It was about 10 months at the beginning of the year and as high as 16 in August 2020, pointing to erosion of developing nation firepower to defend currencies. (Full Report)
Retail inflation quickens to 7% after cooling to a five-month low in July
Price pressures returned to the Indian economy in August, with retail inflation quickening to 7% after cooling to a five-month low in July. The increase, led by food prices, makes it the eighth month that retail inflation has stayed above the central bank’s upper tolerance limit of 6%, strengthening the case for continued monetary tightening.
Retail inflation in July had cooled to 6.7%, and a Mint poll of 22 economists estimated August inflation at 6.9%. The Reserve Bank of India has projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7%. (Full Report)
US stocks close higher on Monday ahead of key inflation data
Wall Street stocks ended with solid gains Monday, continuing the upswing last week that snapped a three-week losing streak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% to finish the day at 32,381.34, the fourth straight gain.
The broad-based S&P 500 advanced 1.1% to 4,110.41, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.3% to 12,266.41.
Investors are looking ahead to a critical release Tuesday on US consumer prices, followed by Thursday’s report on retail sales — the last major data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate move next week.
While inflation is expected to have eased in August, largely due to falling gasoline prices, it seems unlikely it will be enough to stave off a third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike from the Fed. (AFP)
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